Saul McLeodpublished How do we attach meaning to other's behavior or our own? This is called attribution theory. For example, is someone angry because they are bad-tempered or because something bad happened?
Citations The catastrophic consequences of anthropogenic global warming AGW are cited as melting glaciers and ice sheets, rising seas, and extreme weather. Examples of extreme weather include heat waves, droughts, floods, and super storms. The plan imposes a phased reduction of fossil fuel emissions on the Parties.
The classification is based on whether the country is industrialized and whether it is a transition economy emerging from communism UNFCCC, All industrialized countries are classified as Annex I and these countries are obligated to reduce their fossil fuel emissions according to a phased reduction plan Obergassel, UNFCCC, Non-industrialized developing countries are classified as Non-Annex and these Parties have no emission reduction obligation.
The so called vulnerable countries form a sub-group Case study attribution theory the Non-Annex countries. This group includes those developing countries that are deemed to be particularly susceptible to and least able to cope with the adverse effects of climate change.
Special consideration is given to the Least Developed Countries LDC to ensure their inclusion in the vulnerable group. In addition to emission reduction, Annex I countries have a further obligation to provide climate change adaptation assistance to vulnerable Non-Annex and LDC countries in the form of funding and technology transfer.
Initially, all such events in the VNAL countries were treated as fundable under the Framework Convention but recently it has been argued that this funding policy is arbitrary because natural variability is known to cause extreme weather events anyway even in the absence of fossil fuel emissions and that therefore not all extreme weather events can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions and not all extreme weather events are relevant in the context of climate adaptation assistance from the Annex I countries to the VNAL countries Allen, This is where Event Attribution Science comes from.
Accordingly, the WIM requires that loss and damage suffered by the VNAL countries for which compensation is sought from climate adaptation funds must be attributable to fossil fuel emissions.
A probabilistic methodology was devised to address the need for attribution in the WIM and It has gained widespread acceptance in both technical and policy circles as a tool for the allocation of limited climate adaptation funds among competing needs of the VNAL countries Stott, Otto, Otto, James, Trenberth, Peterson, Huggel, The probabilistic event attribution methodology PEA uses a large number of climate model experiments with multiple models and a multiplicity of initial conditions.
A large sample size is used because extreme weather events are rare and their probability small by definition. If the probability with emissions P1 exceeds the probability without emissions P0the results are interpreted to indicate that emissions played a role in the occurrence of the event in question.
Otherwise the event is assumed to be a product of natural variation alone. A contentious issue in PEA analysis is that of uncertainty in the values of P0 and P1 and in the model results themselves. Policy analysts fear that large uncertainties of climate models Oreskes, Frame, Curry, and shortcomings of the PEA methodology Zwiers, Hulme, provide sufficient reason to question the reliability of PEA to serve its intended function as a criterion for access to climate adaptation funds Hulme, Mike Hulme argues that much greater statistical confidence in the PEA test is needed to justify denial of adaptation funding for loss and damage from weather extremes that do not pass the PEA test.
Yet another concern with respect to the PEA methodology, and one that is the subject of this study, is the apparent tendency in climate science to extend the interpretation of PEA results beyond their intended function of climate adaptation fund allocation and into the realm of empirical evidence.
It is argued that the harm from these extreme weather effects of AGW provides scientific, ecological, social, political, and economic justification for urgent and costly reductions in fossil fuel emissions as a way of attenuating AGW because the social and economic cost of adaptation later is greater than the cost of mitigation now Stern, Metz, IPCC, Of particular note in this regard is that claims made by the IPCC in with regard to the effect of AGW on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, droughts, and floods have been all but retracted in their very next Assessment Report in IPCCAR5, It is likely this frustration with the absence of trends in the historical data on extreme weather that motivated climate scientists to turn to PEA analysis as an alternative to empirical evidence of the extreme weather effects of AGW WMO, Stott, Trenberth, Otto, Thus, PEA results have been extrapolated and generalized well beyond the context of its narrow definition in terms of the WIM.
Such extrapolation allows climate science to present positive PEA results as evidence that extreme precipitation, floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold spells are attributable to fossil fuel emissions WMO, Sneed, Here we show with the high profile example of the autumn floods of in England and Wales that this interpretation of PEA results Stott, commits the fallacy of circular reasoning and that therefore positive PEA results by themselves do not constitute empirical evidence that AGW causes extreme weather events.
This work describes Event Attribution Science in a case study format using the high profile example of the Event Attribution analysis of the floods in England and Wales in the year by Pall, A critical evaluation of these interpretations is made in light of the relevant precipitation data Met Office, and non-meteorological factors that affect flood impact severity Boardman, Boardman, Austrian psychologist Fritz Heider developed attribution theory to explain the process by which we attribute outcomes based on internal behavior and external events.
Internal causes include. Attribution theory was seen as relevant to the study of person perception, event perception, attitude change, the acquisition of self-knowledge, therapeutic interventions, and . In the social sciences and life sciences, a case study is a research method involving an up-close, in-depth, and detailed examination of a subject of study (the case), as .
Attribution Theory of Leadership Attribution theory was a psychological theory first proposed by Fritz Heider in and extended by Harold Kelley in Terence R. Mitchell first introduced attribution theory as a leadership theory in (Martinko, ).
Attribution Theory Harvard Case Study Solution and Analysis of Reading The Harvard Case Study: To have a complete understanding of the case, one should focus on case reading.
It is said that hbr case study should be read two times. Initially, fast reading without taking notes and underlines should be done. The study of perceived causation is identified by the term "attribution theory," attribution referring to the perception or inference of cause.
As we will see, there is not one but (in this case, low status) is exposed to an external force, his behavior consistent with the force cannot.